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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.